subTopic 8.1: Human Populations
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A population describes a group of individuals of the same species occupying a specific area at a specific time. Some characteristics of populations that are of interest to biologists include the population density , the birthrate , and the death rate . If there is immigration into the population, or emigration out of it, then the immigration rate and emigration rate are also of interest. Together, these population parameters, or characteristics, describe how the population density changes over time.
Demography is the study of the statistical characteristics of human populations, e.g. total size, age and sex composition ad changes over time with variations in birth and death rates.
In this unit we will measure population density, look at various population models.
This SL unit is a minimum of 2 hours.
Demography is the study of the statistical characteristics of human populations, e.g. total size, age and sex composition ad changes over time with variations in birth and death rates.
In this unit we will measure population density, look at various population models.
This SL unit is a minimum of 2 hours.
Guiding Questions:
- How can the dynamics of human populations be measured and compared?
- To what extent can the future growth of the human population be accurately predicted?
Understanding:
human population dynamics
8.1.1 Births and immigration are inputs to a human population.
- Define CBR,
- Calculate values of CBR
- Explain why crude birth rate (CBR) varies so much between countries
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A systems approach views human populations as a dynamic storage unit, where population size fluctuates over time due to various inflows and outflows. These inflows and outflows, along with feedback loops and delays, influence the growth or decline of the population.
At its core, a population can be considered a stock that changes in size through specific inputs and outputs:
Population as a Stock:
Inflows (Inputs) Affecting Population Size:
Births:
Crude Birth Rates (CBR):
Fertility:
GFR
ASBR
At its core, a population can be considered a stock that changes in size through specific inputs and outputs:
Population as a Stock:
- Population can be visualized as a storage or stock.
- Size changes over time due to inputs (births, immigration) and outputs (deaths, emigration).
Inflows (Inputs) Affecting Population Size:
Births:
- Crude birth rate (number of live births per 1,000 people per year).
- Influencing factors: fertility rates, access to healthcare, family planning, cultural and socio-economic conditions.
- Rate of people moving into a population from other regions.
- Influencing factors: economic opportunities, political stability, environmental factors, immigration policies.
Crude Birth Rates (CBR):
- CBR- Crude birth rate is the number of live births per 1000 people in a population.
- Total number of births/total population X 1000 = CBR.
- CBR does not calculate the age and sex structure of the population.
Fertility:
- TFR- Total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman of child-bearing age.
- This indicator can provide a common sense understanding of births in a country
GFR
- General fertility rate is the number of births per thousand woman aged between 15-49 years old.
ASBR
- Age-specific birth rate is the number of births per 1000 women of any specific year group.
Crude birth rates differ around the world.
8.1.2 Deaths and emigration are outputs from a human population.
- Define CDR,
- Calculate values of CDR
- Explain why crude death rate varies so much between countries
Death rates:
Crude Death Rate
It is a poor indicator as populations with many old people (MEDCs) have higher CDRs than countries with more younger populations. (Ex: Denmark 11% and Mexico 5%).
- Definition: The number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population per year.
- Calculation: CDR = (Number of deaths / Total population) × 1,000
- Significance: CDR is a fundamental measure used to understand the mortality within a population. It reflects the overall health and living conditions of a population.
- Application:
- Local Scale: In small urban areas or towns, CDR can indicate local healthcare access, environmental conditions, and public health effectiveness.
- National Scale: On a country level, CDR helps assess national healthcare systems, nutrition, and the impact of policies on population health.
- Global Scale: Globally, comparing CDRs across countries or regions highlights disparities in health, economic development, and environmental conditions.
- Influencing Factors:
- Health care quality and access.
- Prevalence of diseases and pandemics.
- Age distribution of the population.
- Living conditions, including nutrition and sanitation.
Crude Death Rate
- CDR= number of deaths/total population X 1000.
- Age-specific mortality rates is the number of deaths per 1000 women of any age group.
- ASMR= number of deaths/1000 women of any specific age group.
- Infant mortality rates is the number of deaths of children under 1 years old per 1000 live births.
It is a poor indicator as populations with many old people (MEDCs) have higher CDRs than countries with more younger populations. (Ex: Denmark 11% and Mexico 5%).
Emigration Rate:
- Definition: The number of people emigrating (leaving) per 1,000 people in a population per year.
- Significance: The emigration rate is a critical measure of population output that reflects economic, political, and social conditions in a region. High emigration rates can indicate economic hardship, political instability, or environmental challenges.
- Application:
- Local Scale: In smaller regions or towns, high emigration rates might suggest a lack of employment opportunities or amenities, leading residents to seek better conditions elsewhere.
- National Scale: Nationally, the emigration rate can reveal the effectiveness of government policies in retaining its population or the attractiveness of other countries as destinations.
- Global Scale: Globally, tracking emigration rates helps understand migration trends and the movement of people between countries, often influenced by global economic conditions, wars, or environmental crises
These inputs and outputs directly affect the overall population size and growth rate. It is essential to use accurate and reliable data sources for calculating population statistics, especially for internal assessments or detailed investigations.
8.1.3 Population dynamics can be quantified and analysed by calculating total fertility rate, life expectancy, doubling time and natural increase.
- Define TFR, DT, and NIR
- Calculate values of TFR, DT, and NIR
- Explain why total fertility rate (TFR), doubling time (DT) and natural increase rate (NIR) vary so much between countries
Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
- Definition: The average number of births a woman is expected to have during her childbearing years (typically ages 15-49).
- Significance: TFR is a critical indicator of population growth potential. It helps in understanding whether a population is growing, stable, or declining.
- Application:
- A TFR of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level, meaning the population will remain stable if there is no net migration.
- TFR varies widely across different regions and countries, influenced by factors such as cultural norms, economic conditions, access to education, and family planning services
Life Expectancy:
- Definition: The average number of years a person is expected to live, starting from birth, assuming current demographic factors (such as mortality rates) remain constant.
- Significance: Life expectancy is a key measure of a population's health and well-being. It reflects the overall quality of life, including healthcare, nutrition, and living conditions.
- Application:
- Higher life expectancy indicates better living conditions and healthcare systems.
- Significant disparities in life expectancy can be observed between developed and developing regions, reflecting differences in healthcare, economic stability, and environmental factors.
Doubling Time:
- Definition: The number of years it would take for a population to double in size at its current growth rate.
- Calculation: Doubling time can be calculated using the rule of 70:
- Formula: Doubling Time = 70 / Growth Rate (%)
- For example, if a population is growing at a rate of 2% per year, the doubling time would be 70 / 2 = 35 years.
- Significance: Doubling time provides a quick estimate of how rapidly a population is expanding. Short doubling times can indicate high growth rates, which may put pressure on resources and infrastructure.
- Definition: The difference between the birth rate and the death rate, expressed either as a number per 1,000 people or as a percentage.
- Calculation: Number per 1,000: Natural Increase = Birth Rate - Death Rate
- Percentage: Natural Increase (%) = (Birth Rate - Death Rate) / 10
- Significance: Natural increase reflects the rate at which a population is growing or shrinking due to natural factors (excluding migration). Positive natural increase indicates population growth, while negative natural increase suggests population decline.
Calculating Natural Increase Rate and Doubling Time
The following data is for a hypothetical country:
- Crude Birth Rate (CBR): 25 per 1,000 people
- Crude Death Rate (CDR): 10 per 1,000 people
- Growth Rate: 1.5% per year
Step 1: Calculate the Natural Increase Rate
The natural increase rate is calculated using the formula:
The natural increase rate is calculated using the formula:
Step 2: Calculate the Doubling Time
Doubling time is calculated using the "Rule of 70": (estimated life expancy)
Doubling time is calculated using the "Rule of 70": (estimated life expancy)
Summary of Results:
- Natural Increase Rate: 1.5% per year
- Doubling Time: 46.67 years
- Natural Increase Rate: The population is growing at a rate of 1.5% annually due to the difference between the birth rate and death rate.
- Doubling Time: At this growth rate, the population is projected to double in about 46.67 years, which indicates moderate population growth. This could have significant implications for resource demand, infrastructure development, and environmental impact over the next few decades.
8.1.4 The global human population has followed a rapid growth curve. Models are used to predict the growth of the future global human population.
- Outline human population growth over time.
- Discuss the use of models in predicting growth of human populations.
- Discuss the nature of changes in the global human population, both past trends and future projections.
For thousands of years, human population growth was stable at about 0.04% per year. During the Industrial Revolution (around 1800), this rate increased, leading to exponential growth in the human population.
Population growth curves vary significantly between countries due to differences in fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration patterns. Developed countries often exhibit slow or stable growth, with population curves that plateau as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases. In contrast, many developing countries experience rapid population growth, with steeply rising curves driven by higher fertility rates and improving healthcare. Some countries may also show fluctuating or declining curves due to factors like economic instability, high emigration rates, or aging populations. These differences in growth curves reflect the diverse demographic, socio-economic, and environmental conditions across the globe. Understanding these variations is crucial for effective policy-making and resource management on both national and international levels.
UN projection models provide crucial insights into the potential future growth of the global population. Due to uncertainties in predicting future fertility rates, these models outline three possible scenarios. Each scenario reflects different assumptions about how fertility rates may evolve over time, influencing global population trends.
Key Concepts:
- Fertility Rate Uncertainty:
- Fertility rates—the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime—are a critical factor in determining future population growth. However, predicting how these rates will change in the future is challenging due to various socio-economic, cultural, and environmental factors.
- The UN uses projection models to account for this uncertainty by creating three scenarios based on different fertility rate assumptions.
- Three Projection Scenarios:
- High-Fertility Scenario:
- Assumption: Fertility rates remain high or decline more slowly than expected.
- Outcome: In this scenario, the global population continues to grow rapidly, potentially reaching higher numbers than anticipated. This could result in significant pressures on resources, infrastructure, and the environment.
- Implications: Countries might face challenges in providing adequate healthcare, education, and employment opportunities, and there could be increased strain on natural resources and ecosystems.
- Medium-Fertility Scenario:
- Assumption: Fertility rates decline at a moderate pace, aligning with current global trends.
- Outcome: This is the most likely scenario, where the global population grows steadily but at a slower rate than in the high-fertility scenario. The population eventually stabilizes or grows at a more sustainable pace.
- Implications: Governments may have more time to plan and implement policies to manage population growth, such as improving healthcare, expanding education, and investing in sustainable infrastructure.
- Low-Fertility Scenario:
- Assumption: Fertility rates decline more rapidly than expected, falling below the replacement level in many regions.
- Outcome: In this scenario, population growth slows significantly, and in some regions, populations may even begin to shrink. This could lead to aging populations and potential labor shortages.
- Implications: Countries with low fertility rates might face challenges related to aging populations, such as increased demand for healthcare and pensions, and a shrinking workforce. This could also lead to changes in immigration policies to counteract population decline.
- High-Fertility Scenario:
- Impacts of Each Scenario:
- High-Fertility Scenario: Continued rapid population growth could exacerbate global challenges such as climate change, food security, and access to clean water. Governments and international organizations would need to focus on mitigating these impacts through sustainable development practices.
- Medium-Fertility Scenario: A more moderate population growth allows for better resource management and planning. This scenario offers the potential for a balanced approach to economic development and environmental conservation.
- Low-Fertility Scenario: Population decline or slower growth could lead to an increased focus on supporting aging populations and maintaining economic stability. It might also prompt policies aimed at encouraging higher fertility rates or increased immigration to sustain population levels.
- Factors Influencing Fertility Rates:
- Socio-economic Development: As countries develop economically, fertility rates tend to decline due to improved access to education, healthcare, and family planning.
- Cultural and Religious Beliefs: Cultural norms and religious beliefs play a significant role in shaping family size and fertility rates in different regions.
- Government Policies: Pro-natalist or anti-natalist policies can directly influence fertility rates by encouraging larger or smaller family sizes.
managing populations
8.1.5 Population and migration policies can be employed to directly manage growth rates of human
populations.
populations.
- Compare and evaluate two anti-natalist national population policies.
- Using an example, outline the factors that would lead a society to have pro-natalist policies, then outline and evaluate those policies
- Outline how the millennium development goals can play a role in reducing population growth.
Governments can influence the growth rates of their human populations by implementing targeted population and migration policies. These policies may be either anti-natalist, aiming to reduce birth rates, or pro-natalist, encouraging higher birth rates. Additionally, migration policies can manage population size by controlling immigration and emigration. These strategies often leverage a range of cultural, religious, economic, social, and political factors to achieve their goals.
Key Concepts
Anti-Natalist Policies:
Key Concepts
Anti-Natalist Policies:
- Definition: Policies designed to reduce birth rates and slow population growth.
- Purpose: To manage population growth in countries or regions where overpopulation is a concern, leading to strains on resources, infrastructure, and the environment.
- Common Features
- Legal Restrictions:
- Limits on the number of children per family (e.g., one-child policy)
- Mandatory birth spacing between children.
- Limits on the number of children per family (e.g., one-child policy)
- Economic Disincentives:
- Higher taxes or penalties for families with more than a certain number of children.
- Reduction or elimination of financial benefits for additional children.
- Higher taxes or penalties for families with more than a certain number of children.
- Access to Contraception and Family Planning:
- Widespread availability of contraceptives at low or no cost.
- Education and promotion of family planning methods.
- Government-funded sterilization programs or incentives for voluntary sterilization.
- Widespread availability of contraceptives at low or no cost.
- Public Awareness Campaigns:
- Campaigns promoting the benefits of smaller families.
- Education on the social, economic, and environmental impacts of overpopulation.
- Health Services:
- Access to safe and legal abortion services.
- Comprehensive reproductive health services.
- Educational Initiatives:
- Education programs that emphasize the advantages of small family sizes.
- Promotion of delayed marriage and childbearing.
- Support for Women’s Rights:
- Empowering women with education and employment opportunities.
- Policies that support gender equality, reducing the pressure on women to have multiple children.
- Legal Restrictions:
- Named Example: China’s One-Child Policy (1979-2015):
- Objective: To curb the rapidly growing population, the Chinese government introduced the One-Child Policy, limiting most families to having only one child.
- Methods: The policy was enforced through various measures, including fines for additional children, incentives for single-child families, and widespread education campaigns promoting smaller families.
- Outcomes: While the policy successfully slowed population growth, it also led to unintended consequences such as an aging population, gender imbalances, and a shrinking workforce. The policy was eventually relaxed and replaced with a Two-Child Policy in 2016
Pro-Natalist Policies:
- Definition: Policies aimed at increasing birth rates to boost population growth.
- Purpose: To address issues related to declining populations, such as labor shortages, an aging workforce, and economic stagnation.
- Common Feature
- Financial Incentives:
- Tax breaks or credits for families with children.
- Direct payments or subsidies for each child born.
- Housing allowances or discounts for larger families.
- Tax breaks or credits for families with children.
- Social Support Services:
- Access to affordable childcare and education.
- Paid parental leave (maternity and paternity leave).
- Free or subsidized healthcare for children and mothers.
- Access to affordable childcare and education.
- Promotional Campaigns:
- Public campaigns promoting the benefits of larger families.
- Encouragement of family-friendly workplace practices.
- Public campaigns promoting the benefits of larger families.
- Family-Friendly Policies:
- Flexible working hours or options for remote work to support parents.
- Assistance with fertility treatments or adoption processes.
- Flexible working hours or options for remote work to support parents.
- Cultural and Religious Endorsements:
- Collaboration with religious or cultural institutions to promote larger families.
- Celebrating cultural or religious traditions that emphasize family values.
- Collaboration with religious or cultural institutions to promote larger families.
- Educational Incentives:
- Scholarships or financial support for the education of multiple children in a family.
- Housing Benefits:
- Priority access to larger housing units for families with more children.
- Reduced mortgage rates or rent subsidies for larger families.
- Priority access to larger housing units for families with more children.
- Financial Incentives:
- Named Example: France’s Pro-Natalist Policies:
- Objective: To counter declining birth rates and an aging population, the French government has implemented various pro-natalist measures.
- Methods: These include generous parental leave, financial incentives such as family allowances, tax breaks for larger families, subsidized childcare, and public campaigns promoting the benefits of having more children.
- Outcomes: France has managed to maintain one of the highest fertility rates in Europe, partly due to its comprehensive support system for families.
Migration Policies:
- Definition: Policies that manage the flow of people into (immigration) and out of (emigration) a country.
- Purpose: To control population size, address labor market needs, and manage cultural and social integration.
- Common Features:
- Support for Expatriates:
- Programs to maintain cultural ties and support expatriates’ rights.
- Consular services and support for citizens living abroad.
- Incentives for Return Migration:
- Financial incentives, such as grants or tax breaks, for citizens returning to their home country.
- Assistance with reintegration, including housing, employment, and social services.
- Exit Visas and Documentation:
- Requirement for exit visas or specific documentation to leave the country.
- Regulations on capital or asset transfer for those emigrating.
- Legal Protections:
- Ensuring the rights and protection of emigrants, particularly in cases of labor migration.
- Bilateral agreements with other countries to safeguard emigrants’ welfare.
- Economic Policies:
- Encouraging remittances from citizens working abroad.
- Policies aimed at leveraging the skills and experience of the diaspora for national development.
- Restrictions on Emigration:
- Limits on emigration to prevent brain drain or labor shortages in critical sectors.
- National service requirements or bonds that must be fulfilled before emigration.
- Public Awareness Campaigns:
- Campaigns highlighting the risks and challenges of emigrating, particularly for unskilled workers.
- Promotion of national identity and the benefits of staying in the home country.
- Support for Expatriates:
- Named Example: Australia’s Skilled Migration Program:
- Objective: To attract skilled workers to fill labor shortages and support economic growth.
- Methods: Australia’s immigration policy favors skilled migrants through a points-based system that assesses applicants based on factors such as age, education, work experience, and English language proficiency.
- Outcomes: The program has helped Australia maintain a steady population growth and address specific labor market needs, while also contributing to the country’s cultural diversity
Factors Influencing Policy Success:
- Cultural and Religious Factors: Policies must consider cultural and religious norms to be effective. For example, pro-natalist policies may resonate more in societies that value large families, while anti-natalist policies may face resistance in cultures where high fertility is seen as a social or religious duty.
- Economic Incentives: Financial incentives, such as tax breaks, subsidies, and direct payments, are commonly used to encourage or discourage childbirth. Economic stability and job opportunities also play a critical role in migration decisions.
- Social Support Systems: Access to affordable healthcare, education, childcare, and parental leave can influence the success of pro-natalist policies.
- Political Stability and Governance: The effectiveness of migration policies often depends on the political environment, border control measures, and international relations.
8.1.6 Human population growth can also be managed indirectly through economic, social, health, development and other policies that have an impact on births, deaths or migration.
- Define the term "indirect population management"
- Explain how economic development policies can influence population growth.
- Describe how improvements in public health can lead to changes in birth rates and life expectancy. Use a named example to support your answer.
- Explain the relationship between gender equality and fertility rates
In addition to direct population and migration policies, governments can manage human population growth indirectly through a variety of economic, social, health, and development policies. These policies may not specifically target population control, but their effects on birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns can significantly influence population dynamics. By addressing key areas such as gender equality, education, and public health, these policies contribute to shaping the overall growth or decline of human populations.
Sustainable Development Goal 4: “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all."
As soon as a government introduces free compulsory primary education the birth rates can decline. Free education alone does not have the same impact as many parents children as free labor over educating them. If however primary school is free and compulsory then more children will attend and they cease to be an economic asset.
As soon as a government introduces free compulsory primary education the birth rates can decline. Free education alone does not have the same impact as many parents children as free labor over educating them. If however primary school is free and compulsory then more children will attend and they cease to be an economic asset.
Sustainable Development Goal 3: "Aspires to ensure health and well-being for all, including a bold commitment to end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other communicable diseases by 2030. "
Ensuring health and well-being for all under SDG 3 helps to improve overall quality of life, reduce healthcare costs, and foster economic stability by preventing and managing epidemics like AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Achieving this goal promotes healthier populations, which leads to increased productivity, stronger communities, and a more resilient global society, ultimately contributing to sustainable development and poverty
Ensuring health and well-being for all under SDG 3 helps to improve overall quality of life, reduce healthcare costs, and foster economic stability by preventing and managing epidemics like AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Achieving this goal promotes healthier populations, which leads to increased productivity, stronger communities, and a more resilient global society, ultimately contributing to sustainable development and poverty
Economic Development Policies:
- Impact on Population Growth: Economic development policies that focus on improving living standards, reducing poverty, and creating job opportunities can have a significant impact on population dynamics. As economies grow, birth rates often decline due to increased access to education and employment, particularly for women, and improved economic security that reduces the need for large families.
Example: South Korea’s Economic Development and Family Planning:
- Objective: In the 1960s and 1970s, South Korea implemented a series of economic development policies aimed at rapid industrialization and poverty reduction. These policies were coupled with family planning programs to manage population growth.
- Methods: The government promoted smaller families through public education campaigns, provided access to contraception, and improved healthcare services, particularly maternal and child health.
- Outcomes: South Korea experienced a dramatic decline in birth rates, leading to a stabilized population growth. The country’s economic transformation also contributed to higher living standards, better education, and improved gender equality, all of which indirectly influenced population dynamics.
Social and Educational Policies:
- Impact on Population Growth: Policies that improve access to education, particularly for girls and women, are strongly correlated with declining birth rates. Education empowers individuals to make informed choices about family size, delays marriage and childbearing, and increases women’s participation in the workforce. Social policies that promote gender equality and women’s rights further reinforce these trends.
Example: Bangladesh’s Investment in Female Education:
- Objective: Since the 1990s, Bangladesh has focused on improving education for girls as a key component of its development strategy. This approach was driven by the understanding that female education is critical to reducing poverty and managing population growth.
- Methods: The government implemented policies that provided free and compulsory education for girls, offered financial incentives for families to keep their daughters in school, and expanded access to secondary and higher education for women.
- Outcomes: The focus on female education has led to a significant decline in fertility rates in Bangladesh. Educated women are more likely to delay marriage, have fewer children, and invest in the health and education of their children, contributing to a broader demographic transition. Additionally, women’s increased participation in the workforce has further supported economic development and population management.
Health and Public Welfare Policies:
- Impact on Population Growth: Improvements in public health and welfare, including access to healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition, can indirectly influence population dynamics by reducing death rates and improving life expectancy. Health policies that focus on maternal and child health, in particular, can reduce infant mortality rates and, over time, lead to smaller family sizes as parents have greater confidence in the survival of their children.
Example: Brazil’s Bolsa Família Program:
- Objective: Brazil’s Bolsa Família program, introduced in 2003, is a social welfare initiative aimed at reducing poverty and improving health and education outcomes for low-income families.
- Methods: The program provides conditional cash transfers to poor families, with the conditions that children attend school and receive regular health check-ups, including vaccinations and prenatal care for pregnant women.
- Outcomes: The program has contributed to significant improvements in child health and education, resulting in lower infant mortality rates and increased school attendance. By addressing the root causes of poverty and providing health and education services, the program has indirectly contributed to a decline in birth rates and improved overall population health, supporting Brazil’s demographic transition.
Development Policies:
Example: India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA):
- Impact on Population Growth: Broad-based development policies that address infrastructure, housing, and rural development can influence migration patterns, either encouraging or discouraging people from moving to urban areas or other countries. For instance, policies that improve rural livelihoods can reduce the push factors that drive rural-urban migration.
Example: India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA):
- Objective: The NREGA, launched in 2005, aims to enhance livelihood security in rural areas by providing at least 100 days of wage employment to rural households. The policy is part of a broader strategy to reduce poverty and prevent mass migration from rural to urban areas.
- Methods: The program guarantees employment to rural residents, focusing on labor-intensive public works projects such as water conservation, afforestation, and rural infrastructure development.
- Outcomes: By providing stable employment and improving rural infrastructure, NREGA has helped reduce the push factors leading to rural-urban migration. This has had a stabilizing effect on population growth in urban areas and has contributed to better resource management in rural regions, indirectly influencing overall population dynamics.
population models
8.1.7 The composition of human populations can be modelled and compared using age–sex pyramids.
- Define an age–sex pyramid
- Explain how age-sex pyramids can be used to model the composition of a human population.
b. Describe the characteristics of an age–sex pyramid for a country with a youthful population. - Outline social and economic challenges might this country face
- Explain how migration can affect the shape of an age–sex pyramid. .
image from en.wikipedia.org
Age–sex pyramids, also known as population pyramids, are graphical representations that depict the composition of human populations based on age and gender. These pyramids can be measured in absolute numbers or as percentages of the total population. They are valuable tools for analyzing and comparing the demographic structure of populations, revealing trends in birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy, as well as potential social and economic challenges.
- a wide base indicates a high birth rate
- narrowing base suggests falling birth rate
- straight or near vertical sides reveal a low death rate
- concave slopes characterize high death rates
- bulges in the slope indicate immigration or in-migration
- deficits in the slope indicate emigration or out-migration or age-specific or sex-specific deaths (epidemics, war)
Factors Influencing Population Composition:
- Fertility Rates: Higher fertility rates result in a broader base, while lower fertility rates produce a narrower base.
- Mortality Rates: Higher mortality rates, particularly among infants and young children, can reduce the size of younger cohorts.
- Migration: Immigration and emigration can alter the shape of the pyramid, particularly if migrants are predominantly of a certain age group or gender.
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High Birth and Death Rates:
People want children: ( High Birth rates)
People die from: (High Death rates)
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Low Birth and Death Rates:
Birth rates decline because:
Death rates decline because:
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Uses of Age–Sex Pyramids:
- Demographic Analysis: Age–sex pyramids are essential for understanding the demographic structure of a population, identifying trends such as aging populations, youth bulges, or imbalances between male and female populations.
- Planning and Policy-Making: Governments and organizations use these pyramids to plan for future needs, such as schools, healthcare, housing, and employment opportunities. For example, a youthful population may require investment in education and job creation, while an aging population may need more healthcare services and retirement planning.
- Comparative Analysis: Age–sex pyramids allow for comparison between different populations, whether between countries, regions, or specific communities. This can help identify demographic challenges and opportunities unique to each population.
Example: Nigeria (Youthful Population):
Nigeria’s age–sex pyramid has a broad base, reflecting a high birth rate and a large proportion of young people. This indicates rapid population growth and potential challenges in providing sufficient education and employment opportunities for the youth.
Nigeria’s age–sex pyramid has a broad base, reflecting a high birth rate and a large proportion of young people. This indicates rapid population growth and potential challenges in providing sufficient education and employment opportunities for the youth.
Example Japan (Aging Population):
Japan’s age–sex pyramid shows a narrow base and a wide top, reflecting a low birth rate and an aging population. This demographic pattern suggests challenges related to supporting an elderly population with a shrinking workforce and increasing demand for healthcare services.
Japan’s age–sex pyramid shows a narrow base and a wide top, reflecting a low birth rate and an aging population. This demographic pattern suggests challenges related to supporting an elderly population with a shrinking workforce and increasing demand for healthcare services.
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8.1.8 The demographic transition model (DTM) describes the changing levels of births and deaths in
a human population through different stages of development over time.
a human population through different stages of development over time.
- Construct and analyze age-gender pyramids
- Outline the stages of the demographic transition model.
- Use age-gender pyramids to place a society in a demographic transition stage.
- Use diagrams of the demographic transition model to determine CBR, CDR, and NIR.
The shapes of the pyramids are following:
- Expanding (stage 1) – high birth rates; rapid fall in each upward age group due to high death rates; short life expectancy.
- Expanding (stage 2) – high birth rates; fall in death rates as more living to middle age; slightly longer life expectancy.
- Stationary (stage 3) – declining birth rate; low death rate’ more people living to old age.
- Contracting (stage 4) – low birth rate; low death rate; higher dependency ratio; longer life expectancy.
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image from http://geographyfieldwork.com/
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DTM- Demographic transition model shows us that countries progress through recognized stages in the transition from LEDC to MEDC. It suggests that death rates fall before birth rates and that the total population expands
While many of the more economically developed countries (MEDCs) have a declining population size, that of many of the less economically developed countries (LEDCs) is rising rapidly. The position of various countries on the demographic transition model reflects their development stages.
While many of the more economically developed countries (MEDCs) have a declining population size, that of many of the less economically developed countries (LEDCs) is rising rapidly. The position of various countries on the demographic transition model reflects their development stages.
Strengths and Limitations of the DTM
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HL Only
8.1.9 Rapid human population growth has increased stress on the Earth’s systems.
- Explain the implications for Earth’s systems of the continued growth of the human population.
image from https://www.pik-potsdam.de
Rapid human population growth has placed increasing stress on the Earth’s systems, leading to significant environmental, social, and economic challenges. As the global population continues to rise, it is crucial to understand the projections for future population growth and the factors that could influence these projections. Additionally, this growth exacerbates biocapacity disparity and contributes to the crossing of social foundation and planetary boundaries, as illustrated in the doughnut economics model.
Current Population Projections:
Current Population Projections:
- Global Population Growth: The world population has been growing at an unprecedented rate, currently estimated at over 8 billion people. Projections indicate that this growth will continue, although the rate may slow as fertility rates decline in many regions.
- 50-Year Projection: The United Nations projects that the global population could reach approximately 9.7 billion by 2070, assuming medium fertility rates. However, variations in fertility, mortality, and migration could lead to higher or lower population figures.
- 100-Year Projection: Looking further ahead, projections for the next 100 years suggest the global population could stabilize at around 10 to 11 billion by 2120, with some models predicting potential declines due to aging populations and reduced fertility rates.
- Factors Influencing Projections:
- Fertility Rates: Declining fertility rates, particularly in developed countries, may slow population growth. However, high fertility rates in some developing regions could sustain rapid growth.
- Mortality Rates: Improvements in healthcare and living standards could lower mortality rates, particularly in regions with high infant and child mortality.
- Migration Patterns: Migration can redistribute populations and affect growth rates in specific regions, particularly urban areas.
- Policy Interventions: Government policies on family planning, education, and healthcare can significantly influence population trends.
Stress on Earth’s Systems:
- Biocapacity Disparity: The Earth’s biocapacity is its ability to regenerate natural resources and absorb waste, including carbon emissions. Rapid population growth increases the demand for resources, leading to a biocapacity deficit in many regions where consumption exceeds the Earth’s regenerative capacity. This disparity contributes to environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity, and resource scarcity.
- Social Foundation and Planetary Boundaries: The doughnut economics model, developed by economist Kate Raworth, provides a framework for understanding the balance between human needs and the Earth’s ecological limits. The model consists of two concentric rings:
- Social Foundation: The inner ring represents the minimum social foundation needed for a decent quality of life, including access to food, water, healthcare, education, and energy.
- Planetary Boundaries: The outer ring represents the ecological ceiling, beyond which environmental degradation occurs. These boundaries include climate change, biodiversity loss, land use change, and pollution.
- Crossing Boundaries: Rapid population growth increases the risk of crossing these planetary boundaries as human activities intensify, leading to unsustainable pressure on the Earth’s systems. For example, deforestation for agriculture to feed a growing population contributes to biodiversity loss and climate change, while overfishing depletes marine resources.
image from https://www.researchgate.net
Implications of Population Growth:
Doughnut Economics Model and Sustainable Development:
- Environmental Degradation: As the population grows, the demand for land, water, and energy increases, leading to deforestation, desertification, water scarcity, and pollution. These impacts are particularly severe in regions with limited biocapacity.
- Climate Change: Higher populations lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions from energy production, transportation, and agriculture, exacerbating climate change and its associated impacts, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems.
- Resource Scarcity: Rapid population growth can lead to the overuse of natural resources, such as freshwater, arable land, and minerals, resulting in resource depletion and increased competition for these resources.
- Social and Economic Inequality: Biocapacity disparity often correlates with social and economic inequality, as wealthier populations consume more resources, while poorer populations may struggle to meet basic needs. This inequality can lead to social unrest and conflict over resources.
Doughnut Economics Model and Sustainable Development:
- Balancing Growth and Sustainability: The doughnut economics model emphasizes the need to balance human development with ecological sustainability. It calls for policies that ensure all people can live within the social foundation without exceeding planetary boundaries.
- Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): The model aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, which aim to eradicate poverty and hunger, promote health and well-being, and protect the environment through sustainable practices.
- Future Strategies: To manage the impacts of population growth, strategies such as improving resource efficiency, promoting renewable energy, enhancing conservation efforts, and implementing equitable social policies are essential.
8.1.10 Age–sex pyramids can be used to determine the dependency ratio and population
momentum.
momentum.
- Define the dependency ratio
- Explain how dependency ratio can be calculated using an age–sex pyramid.
- Describe the concept of population momentum and explain how it can lead to continued population growth even if fertility rates decline.
- Explain how a country’s age–sex pyramid can be used to predict future economic challenges related to a high dependency ratio. Provide an example to support your answer.
Age–sex pyramids are valuable tools for analyzing the demographic structure of populations, particularly in determining the dependency ratio and understanding population momentum. The dependency ratio is a key indicator of the economic burden on the working-age population, while population momentum explains why populations may continue to grow even after fertility rates decline.
Population momentum refers to a situation where a large percentage of very young people in the population are poised to enter their reproductive years in the coming decades. This dynamic ensures that the population will continue to increase for many years, even if birth rates decline. Population momentum occurs because it is not just the number of children per woman that determines population growth, but also the number of women of reproductive age. This means that even with lower fertility rates, the existing young population will contribute to continued growth as they begin to have children of their own.
Dependency ratio categories
Population momentum refers to a situation where a large percentage of very young people in the population are poised to enter their reproductive years in the coming decades. This dynamic ensures that the population will continue to increase for many years, even if birth rates decline. Population momentum occurs because it is not just the number of children per woman that determines population growth, but also the number of women of reproductive age. This means that even with lower fertility rates, the existing young population will contribute to continued growth as they begin to have children of their own.
Dependency ratio categories
- Category 1: 0-14
- Category 2: 15-64
- Category 3: 65+
Key Concepts:
- Dependency Ratio:
- Definition: The dependency ratio is a measure of the proportion of a population that is dependent on the working-age population. It is calculated by comparing the number of dependents (people under 15 and over 64 years old) to the number of people in the economically productive age group (15–64 years old).
- Calculation:
- Dependency Ratio = (Number of Dependents / Economically Productive Population) × 100
- A higher ratio indicates a greater economic burden on the working population, as fewer people are available to support those who are not working.
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- High Dependency Ratios:
- In Populations with Low Fertility Rates: An aging population, represented by a narrower base and wider top in the age–sex pyramid, also leads to a high dependency ratio. This is typical in developed countries with low birth rates and increasing life expectancy, leading to a larger elderly population.
- In Populations with High Fertility Rates: A broad base in the age–sex pyramid indicates a large proportion of young dependents, resulting in a high dependency ratio. This is common in developing countries where high birth rates contribute to a large youth population.
- Implications:
- Economic Pressure: High dependency ratios can strain public resources, particularly in areas such as education, healthcare, and pensions. A large dependent population requires substantial support from the economically productive group, which can limit economic growth and increase the tax burden on workers.
- Social Services: Governments may need to allocate more resources to support dependent groups, such as providing education for children or healthcare and pensions for the elderly.
- Population Momentum:
- Definition: Population momentum refers to the continued population growth that occurs even after fertility rates decline. This happens because of the existing large base of young people in the population, many of whom are still of or entering reproductive age.
- Explanation:
- Role of Reproductive-Age Women: Even if each woman has fewer children, a large number of women in their childbearing years can still result in a significant number of births, contributing to continued population growth.
- Delayed Effect: Population momentum is essentially a demographic "lag effect," where the impact of fertility rate changes is not immediately reflected in population growth rates. The effects of lower fertility rates will only become apparent after the current younger generation moves out of their reproductive years.
- Implications:
- Sustained Growth: Countries with a large proportion of young people may continue to experience population growth for several decades, even if fertility rates fall to replacement level or below.
- Planning for the Future: Understanding population momentum is crucial for long-term planning, as it helps predict future population growth and the associated demands on resources, infrastructure, and services.
Using Age–Sex Pyramids to Analyze Dependency Ratio and Population Momentum:
- Age–Sex Pyramids and Dependency Ratio:
- An age–sex pyramid with a wide base (high proportion of young dependents) or a wide top (high proportion of elderly dependents) indicates a high dependency ratio.
- Analyzing the shape of the pyramid allows demographers to estimate the economic burden on the working-age population and the potential need for social support services.
- Age–Sex Pyramids and Population Momentum:
- A pyramid with a broad base suggests significant population momentum, as a large cohort of young people will eventually reach reproductive age, continuing to drive population growth even if fertility rates decline.
- The broader the base relative to the middle of the pyramid, the more pronounced the population momentum effect.
Old-age dependency vs. youth dependency
Many countries around the world have a high old-age dependency ratio, but for different reasons. For example, Japan's dependency ratio is about 71% and Nigeria's dependency ratio is about 86%.
Many countries around the world have a high old-age dependency ratio, but for different reasons. For example, Japan's dependency ratio is about 71% and Nigeria's dependency ratio is about 86%.
- Nigeria (High Dependency Ratio and Population Momentum):
- Nigeria’s age–sex pyramid has a broad base, indicating a large youth population and a high dependency ratio. The high fertility rate contributes to significant population momentum, meaning the population is expected to continue growing rapidly even if fertility rates decline
- Japan (High Dependency Ratio with Low Population Momentum):
- Japan’s age–sex pyramid shows a narrow base and a wide top, reflecting an aging population with a high dependency ratio. However, due to low fertility rates and an aging population, Japan has low population momentum, and the population is projected to decline in the coming decades.
Young-age, old-age, and total dependency ratios for persons aged 20–65 years, Sweden 1900–2008 and estimates to 2050
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Young-age-old-age-and-total-dependency-ratios-for-persons-aged-20-65-years-Sweden_fig1_49797546
8.1.11 The reasons for patterns and trends in population structure and growth can be understood using examples of two countries in different stages of the DTM.
- Describe the key characteristics of a country in Stage 3 of the DTM.
- Explain how cultural and economic factors influence population growth in countries at different stages of the DTM,
- Discuss how historical events over the past 30 years have impacted the population structure of a country in Stage 5 of the DTM
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) explains the changes in population structure and growth patterns as a country develops economically and socially. By examining two countries at different stages of the DTM, we can understand the historical, cultural, religious, economic, social, and political factors that have influenced their population trends over the past 30 years, the present, and projected trends for the next 30 years.
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While many of the more economically developed countries (MEDCs) have a declining population size, that of many of the less economically developed countries (LEDCs) is rising rapidly. The position of various countries on the demographic transition model reflects their development stages.
8.1.12 Environmental issues such as climate change, drought and land degradation are causing
environmental migration.
environmental migration.
- Define environmental migration
- Explain how slow onset events such as desertification can lead to migration.
- Describe how sudden onset events, such as intensified storms, contribute to environmental migration.
- Explain the concept of environmental justice in the context of environmental migration.
- Discuss how communities most affected by climate change are often those least responsible for it
Environmental migration is a growing global issue as climate change, drought, and land degradation increasingly force people to leave their homes in search of safer and more sustainable living conditions. Migration driven by environmental factors can occur due to both sudden onset events, such as flooding, forest fires, and intensified storms, as well as slow onset events, such as desertification, sea-level rise, and saltwater inundation. These environmental changes can severely impact livelihoods, food security, and habitation, leading to both internal displacement and international migration.
Types of Environmental Migration:
Types of Environmental Migration:
- Sudden Onset Events:
- Flooding: Rapid and severe floods can destroy homes, infrastructure, and agricultural land, leading to immediate displacement.
- Droughts: Prolonged droughts can lead to water scarcity, crop failure, and loss of livelihoods, forcing people to migrate in search of better conditions.
- Forest Fires: Increasing temperatures and dry conditions can cause widespread forest fires, leading to the destruction of communities and ecosystems.
- Intensified Storms: Climate change is contributing to more frequent and severe storms, such as hurricanes and cyclones, which can devastate entire regions and prompt large-scale migration.
- Slow Onset Events:
- Desertification: The gradual degradation of land in arid and semi-arid regions reduces agricultural productivity, leading to food insecurity and prompting migration.
- Sea-Level Rise: Rising sea levels, particularly in low-lying coastal areas, can lead to the inundation of land, making it uninhabitable and forcing communities to relocate.
- Saltwater Inundation: The intrusion of saltwater into freshwater systems and agricultural land can destroy crops and contaminate water supplies, leading to displacement.
Impact of Environmental Migration:
- Humanitarian Issues: Environmental migration often leads to humanitarian crises, as displaced populations may face challenges in accessing shelter, food, clean water, and healthcare. Migrants may also face legal and social barriers in host countries, including discrimination and limited access to employment.
- Economic Impacts: The loss of productive land and livelihoods in regions affected by environmental change can have significant economic consequences, both for those who migrate and those who remain behind. Host countries may also experience economic impacts related to the influx of migrants, including pressure on infrastructure and social services.
- Social and Cultural Disruption: Environmental migration can disrupt social networks, cultural practices, and community cohesion. Migrants may struggle to maintain their cultural identity in new environments, while those who remain in affected areas may experience a loss of community support.
- Environmental Justice: Environmental migration raises issues of environmental justice, as the communities most affected by climate change are often those least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions driving these changes. The global community faces challenges in addressing the needs of environmental migrants and ensuring that their rights are protected.
Global and Regional Responses:
- International Agreements: There is growing recognition of the need to address environmental migration through international agreements and frameworks. For example, the Global Compact for Migration, adopted by the United Nations, includes provisions for addressing migration related to climate change and environmental degradation.
- Regional Cooperation: Countries in regions affected by environmental migration are increasingly working together to develop coordinated responses. For example, Pacific Island nations are advocating for stronger international action on climate change to prevent the displacement of their populations.
- Adaptation Strategies: Efforts to build resilience and adapt to climate change are critical in reducing the need for migration. This includes investments in sustainable land management, water conservation, and disaster risk reduction, as well as the development of legal frameworks to protect the rights of environmental migrants.
Migration from Tuvalu to New Zealand Due to Climate Change
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/global-warming-thousands-flee-pacific-islands-on-front-line-of-climate-change-a6757796.html
Background:
Environmental Issues:
Migration Trends:
Social and Economic Impacts:
- Tuvalu is a small island nation in the Pacific Ocean, consisting of low-lying atolls and reef islands. It is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise.
Environmental Issues:
- Sea-Level Rise: Rising sea levels are gradually submerging parts of Tuvalu, leading to coastal erosion, loss of land, and contamination of freshwater sources with saltwater.
- Saltwater Inundation: The intrusion of saltwater has damaged agricultural land, reducing food production and making it difficult for residents to sustain their livelihoods.
Migration Trends:
- As living conditions on the islands become increasingly difficult, many Tuvaluans have migrated to New Zealand, which has a special visa program that allows citizens of Tuvalu to relocate due to environmental factors.
- Migration is seen as both an immediate response to environmental changes and a long-term adaptation strategy as the impacts of climate change intensify.
Social and Economic Impacts:
- The migration of Tuvaluans to New Zealand has led to the creation of diaspora communities, but it also poses challenges related to cultural preservation, integration, and the economic viability of Tuvalu as its population declines.
- Remittances sent back to Tuvalu from migrants in New Zealand provide some economic support, but they are not sufficient to address the underlying environmental challenges.
Application of skills:
- Use secondary data from sources such as Gapminder, World Bank and Our World in Data to test a hypothesis about the relationship between a socio-economic indicator and a demographic factor using a suitable statistical tool.
- Use an online tool for statistics such as the Social Science Statistics calculator.
Key Terms
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Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Crude Death Rate (CDR) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Life Expectancy Doubling Time Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Late Expanding HL ONLY Population Dynamics Age-Specific Fertility Rate Migration Patterns Resettlement Programs |
Natural Increase Rate
Population Momentum Dependency Ratio Age–Sex Pyramid Exponential Growth Mortality rate Child Mortality Early expanding |
Pro-natalist Policies
Anti-natalist Policies Immigration Emigration Environmental Migration |
Biocapacity
Social Foundation Sustainable Development Population Structure |
Classroom Materials
| Subtopic 8.1 Human Population Presentation.pptx |
| Subtopic 8.1 Human Population Workbook.docx |
Activities
- Analyze the UN’s population projections for different countries or regions under each fertility scenario.
- Compare the projected population sizes and demographic structures (e.g., age distribution) under each scenario
- Investigate population changes in a specific country or region over time.
- Analyze the impact of specific inflows and outflows on the population size.
- Interpret demographic transition models to understand shifts in birth and death rates.
- Study the population policies of countries with different CBRs and CDRs, and their impact on population growth or decline.
Investigate the impact of health interventions on life expectancy in developing countries. - .Investigate a country or region with high emigration rates and examine the underlying causes (e.g., economic downturn, political instability).
Analyze the impact of high CDR in specific countries or regions and discuss possible interventions to reduce mortality. - Compare the TFR, life expectancy, doubling time, and natural increase across different countries or regions.
Analyze how these metrics vary between developed and developing countries and discuss the underlying factors contributing to these differences.
Population Calculations Worksheet
Calculating Doubling Time worksheet
Population Project
Modeling Populations Changes and Dynamics
Doubling time Lab
Age and Sex Pyramid worksheet
Age-Sex Population Pyramid and Demographic Indicators Investigation
Demographic Transition and Age Structures Lab
Fertility and Economics Lab
Human Longevity Investigation
Case Studies
- Study countries with high or low TFR and life expectancy, and explore the socio-economic, cultural, and environmental factors influencing these metrics.
- Examine countries currently experiencing high, medium, or low fertility rates and explore the factors driving these trends.
- Investigate how different countries are preparing for the potential outcomes of each fertility scenario, such as planning for aging populations or managing rapid population growth.
- Explore the impacts of repeated cyclones on local communities in Mozambique and the resulting patterns of emigration. Discuss the role of national and international agencies in supporting affected populations and managing environmental migration
- Brief examples of HICs/LICs and countries at each stage of the demographic transition model (country names will suffice)
- 2 case studies on population policies (pro-natalist & anti-natalist) and the impact they had on human population dynamics and growth (eg. China, Singapore)
Thailand
France
Singapore
Niger
Sweden
Japan
Correct use of terminology is a key skill in ESS. It is essential to use key terms correctly when communicating your understanding, particularly in assessments. Use the quizlet flashcards or other tools such as learn, scatter, space race, speller and test to help you master the vocabulary.
Useful Links
The World of 7 Billion
This site calculates what number you were in the world population. I was the 2,842,649,576th person added to the world population
Human Numbers Through Time - NOVA
Demographic Transition - About.com
Follow this link to see population pyramids for nearly every country on Earth - US Census Bureau.
Here's a virtual handbook on population dynamics - Thomas Brey in Germany.
International Population Pyramids - US Census
Demographic Transition Model - About Geography
Click here for a short population dynamics quiz from Nature Works
Data from the CIA World Factbook
National population pyramids
AIDS Clock - UNFPA
The Sustainability Scale Project
International Family Planning - PBS
UN Millennium Development Goals
Progress of any country in achieving the Millennium Development Goals
Interactive maps for the Millennium Development Goals
The World of 7 Billion
This site calculates what number you were in the world population. I was the 2,842,649,576th person added to the world population
Human Numbers Through Time - NOVA
Demographic Transition - About.com
Follow this link to see population pyramids for nearly every country on Earth - US Census Bureau.
Here's a virtual handbook on population dynamics - Thomas Brey in Germany.
International Population Pyramids - US Census
Demographic Transition Model - About Geography
Click here for a short population dynamics quiz from Nature Works
Data from the CIA World Factbook
National population pyramids
AIDS Clock - UNFPA
The Sustainability Scale Project
International Family Planning - PBS
UN Millennium Development Goals
Progress of any country in achieving the Millennium Development Goals
Interactive maps for the Millennium Development Goals
In The News
Seven Billion and Counting - BBC News 21 October 2011
The Growth of Megacities - National Geographic 17 Feb 2014
Global Demographic Trends - International Monetary Fund Sep 2006
Over-populated or under-developed? The real story of population growth - Guardian 28 Jun 2016
China cuts Uighur births with IUDs, abortion, sterilization - AP June 29, 2020
Overpopulation is not a problem article
End of the Developing World article
UN Launches Drive to Highlight Environmental Cost of Staying Fashionable article
Seven Billion and Counting - BBC News 21 October 2011
The Growth of Megacities - National Geographic 17 Feb 2014
Global Demographic Trends - International Monetary Fund Sep 2006
Over-populated or under-developed? The real story of population growth - Guardian 28 Jun 2016
China cuts Uighur births with IUDs, abortion, sterilization - AP June 29, 2020
Overpopulation is not a problem article
End of the Developing World article
UN Launches Drive to Highlight Environmental Cost of Staying Fashionable article
International-mindness:
- A country's development depends on its economy and its demographics. It also depends on the policies of other countries and international organizations such as the World Bank the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
TOK
- A variety of models and indicators are employed to quantify human population dynamics-to what extent are the methods of the human sciences "scientific"?
Videos
It's tough to know what happened on Earth thousands of years before anyone started writing anything down. But thanks to the amazing work of anthropologists and paleontologists like those working on National Geographic's Genographic Project, we can begin to piece together the story of our ancestors. Here's how early humans spread from East Africa all around the world.
Imagine aliens land on Earth a million years from now. What will these curious searchers find of us? They will find what geologists, scientists, and other experts are increasingly calling the Anthropocene, or new age of mankind.
If being alive on Earth were a contest, humans would win it hands down. We're like the Michael Phelps of being alive, but with 250,000 times more gold medals. Today Hank is here to tell us the specifics of why and how human population growth has happened over the past hundred and fifty years or so, and how those specifics relate to ecology
Paul Andersen explains how populations grow
Paul Andersen explains how populations experience exponential. He begins by address the major players; N (population size) and r (growth rate). He models population growth in rabbits through four generations. He then shows you how to use a spreadsheet and then algebra to predict future populations.
As of December 31, 2019, at midnight CET the population on our planet was exactly 9,060,794,141 or an increase of 106,942,723 since last year!
About 10,000 years ago, hunter-gatherers, aided by rudimentary agriculture, moved to semi-permanent villages and never looked back. With further developments came food surpluses, leading to commerce, specialization and, many years later with the Industrial Revolution, the modern city. Vance Kite plots our urban past and how we can expect future cities to adapt to our growing populations.
In this video Paul Andersen explains how humans are impacting the Earth through farming, mining, pollution and climate change. According to the NGSS wise management can reduce impacts on the planet. This will become more important as developing countries start consuming more resources
DON'T PANIC — Hans Rosling showing the facts about population
In a very short amount of time the human population exploded and is still growing very fast. Will this lead to the end of our civilization?
